The surge was always more than just increasing the number of troops – it is also an entirely different strategy for combating Al Qaeda and other enemies in Iraq. This strategy is more aggressive, more active, and puts us on the offensive as opposed to solely crouched on the defensive. Yes, this strategy put American lives at greater risk than before, but it also secured huge gains that are already paying off and will continue to pave the way for a future peaceful Iraq.
The huge bulk of American deaths came during those first couple months of the surge, as our troops were rooting out and confronting the enemy. But since the peak in May, American deaths have steadily dropped. October was the most peaceful month since March of 2006. This month is on track to be similar. IEDs and rocket attacks are also on steep downward trends, hitting their lowest levels in 21 months. Those bloody months of the surge cracked open the insurgency. The US efforts to expel violent terrorists has rightfully earned the respect of patriotic Iraqis and the fear of our enemies.
As for the Concerned Local Citizens, there are currently 67,000 such Iraqis who are helping to protect their neighborhoods. With such a high participation rate, there are surely some bad apples in the mix. But by and large these groups are allied with the US in defeating Al Qaeda and establishing some kind of peace. Following the blueprint set forth in Anbar province, these local groups represent an alliance that includes both Sunni and Shia against a violent enemy that has repelled the average Iraqi. They are able to give our troops life-saving information and work to secure their communities in ways that we as outsiders cannot. It is a great step forward that we are no longer seen as occupiers to be distrusted, but valuable allies in Iraq's fight to save itself. This new perception has arisen in part because Bush, Petraeus, and our troops have shown such commitment to victory in Iraq that would-be allies no longer fear a sudden departure that would leave them at the violent whim of Al Qaeda.
You cite Muqtada al Sadr's decision to retreat as though it is somehow a bad thing. The whole premise of warfare is that you overpower your enemy until they stop fighting. Al Sadr was forced to quiet his militia because they were becoming so exceedingly hated. Their violent ways were further encouraging Shia and Sunni to ally with the US, a united front that would surely mean the end for al Sadr and his gang. Al Sadr was correct in his estimations, but those alliances have now already formed. When the six months are over, al Sadr will be confronted with an Iraq that is more committed to peace than ever before, and any attempts at aggression on his part will be quickly stymied by US troops, the Iraqi army, and regular Iraqis of all stripes. People there are simply fed up with the violence and are helping the US to put a stop to it. Al Sadr saw the writing on the wall and pulled up stakes before he attracted too much unwanted attention from the new, aggressive US strategy allied with a grass-roots effort.
We are seeing unprecedented levels of tranquility in Iraq right now, and it is due to the brave efforts of our men and women in uniform. Petraeus's strategy has routed Al Qaeda and brought about enhanced security for American and Iraqi alike. We must persist in working hard to cement these gains and looking ahead to new ones as we continue to help Iraq secure and protect itself from its enemies.
As our most deadly year in Iraq continues, I remain shocked at the statistical contortions used to prove the war is anything other than a failure. The insurgents don't see this war in the same time frame that we do. For us it's a matter of years, for them it is a matter of decades if not centuries. They can and will wait us out, as they are doing now. Al-Sadr's militia will stay quiet as it amasses recruits and weaponry, until after we leave if necessary. But once the opportunity presents itself, every insurgent will lash out in a wave of violence that we cannot stop and to which we must not subject ourselves. The Iraqi government must learn to stand on its own and will not as long as it can rely on us to foot the bill for its security.
But if Iraq is now so peaceful and al Qaeda defeated, then our job is done and it is time to leave. If you truly believe that the surge has been a success, then you should agree it is time to bring our men and women home. But you know that is nonsense; you know there is still much violence ahead. So let's bring our troops home to safety now.
Tomorrow is yet another debate that we will duly watch and discuss here on Friday. We may not recap the debate as usual, but spend more time on its effect on the race as a whole. The Democratic debate will be on CNN at 8, EST. See you on Friday!
11/12/2007 - Veterans' Day
11/09/2007 - This Time It's Frank's Fault
11/07/2007 - Recap
11/05/2007 - Panic in Pakistan
11/02/2007 - HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray
10/31/2007 - Democratic Debate in Philadelphia
10/29/2007 - Movies Against the Iraq War
10/26/2007 - Technical Difficulties
10/24/2007 - Democrats' Silence on Iraq
10/22/2007 - Speak Softly vs. Carry a Big Stick
10/19/2007 - Blame Ron
10/17/2007 - Recap
10/15/2007 - What's the Matter with Mike Huckabee?
10/12/2007 - NFL - New England at Dallas
10/10/2007 - Republican Debate in Michigan
10/08/2007 - S-CHIP Expansion vs. Renewal
10/05/2007 - Obama and His Flag Pin
10/03/2007 - Is Hillary's Nomination Inevitable?
10/01/2007 - Is the Criticism of Justice Clarence Thomas F...
09/28/2007 - President Bush Addresses Global Warming Summi...
09/26/2007 - Comment Contest! Win Matt Bai's "The Argument...
09/24/2007 - Can Halo 3 Lead Video Games to Entertainment ...
09/21/2007 - Ahmadinejad Speaks; Summers Does Not
09/19/2007 - Democrats New Strategy to Get Out of Iraq
09/17/2007 - DC Voting Rights Act of 2007
09/14/2007 - H or T - College FB Notre Dame at Michigan
09/12/2007 - Who Won "Petraeus Week"?
09/10/2007 - Democrats' Strategy to Get Us Out Now
09/07/2007 - The Surge is Working
09/04/2007 - Fred Thompson - Fashionably Late
We had this discussion all set to go for Monday, but Ron didn't want to run it for fear that I might “politically exploit” Veterans' Day. I will be the bigger man and refrain from calling him a censoring fascist.
This year in Iraq has been the most deadly for US troops since the war began. At least 853 American soldiers, airmen, and Marines have died in 2007, the most of any calendar year, and there is still over a month left. Dress it up however you like, this fact is a clear indication that our reckless venture in Iraq needs to end now. It is time to bring the rest of our men and women home to safety. There is no military success to be had in Iraq, only the continuous loss of American life. The escalation endorsed by Bush and Petraeus has only exposed even more Americans to the ongoing perils in Iraq.
Those dogged few remaining supporters of the war in Iraq say that things are somehow different now. That in spite of all this bloodshed, things have turned that mythical corner once and for all. They claim the surge is working. The surge is a bust. Over the summer the surge caused a leap in American deaths. The past couple of months have not seen similar levels of chaos, but this should not be taken as a sign that Bush was finally right after being wrong so many times. In fact the militia leaders and sectarian strongmen in Iraq have adapted to Bush's policies are now using US weaponry and training to aid in their eventual full-scale civil war.
The US military has been supplying the agitators in the simmering civil war under the guise of establishing security teams led by “Concerned Local Citizens.” They credit these grass-roots efforts with much of the tranquility of once lawless regions. But these Concerned Citizens and their security teams are little more than gangs, manipulating a willing US presence to their advantage. Abu Abed is one such Concerned Citizen, one of our highly touted Sunni allies against al Qaeda. As reported in the Guardian however, his motivation is not so pure. “It's just a way to get arms, and to be a legalised security force to be able to stand against Shia militias and to prevent the Iraqi army and police from entering their areas," he said.
Another significant reason for the relative tranquility of the past few months is that Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the largest militia in Iraq, ordered a six month stand-down in August. While the most dangerous insurgent army stays out of the fray to grow and regroup, Bush claims success. This is no success, only a brief respite from the violence.